Why are the Red Sox actually a great value vs. Astros, plus other best bets for Monday

Hello, everyone, it’s me, Tom Fornelli, and I’m back from my vacation. I hope you didn’t miss me too much but missed me a little. It’s an exciting time to be back because it’s the first day of August, so we’re finally in a month that will have football games.

Seriously, the NFL’s first preseason game is this week as the Jaguars and Raiders play in the Hall of Fame game. We can even bet on it!

The rest of the NFL won’t begin their preseason schedule until next week, including the Cleveland Browns, who will open their preseason on Aug. 12 against the same Jaguars team that plays Thursday. It is not yet known if Deshaun Watson will play in this game or how many games Watson will be available to play during the regular season. Former federal judge Sue L. Robinson handed down her decision in the Watson case Monday morning, suspending Watson for six games.

If the recommended suspension is upheld, Watson would not be eligible to play in the regular season for the Browns until the team’s Week 7 game at Baltimore. But this is only if the suspension is not lengthened. The NFL released a statement after the announcement saying it would “review the implementation of Robinson’s six-game suspension and make a decision on next steps.”

Well, let’s make some money.

All time Eastern, and all odds by Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Red Sox at Astros, 8:10 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Latest problems:

Boston Red Sox +158

  • Key trend: The Astros have lost four straight against teams with a losing record.
  • Pick: Red Sox (+158)

I want to start with a disclaimer: If the Red Sox trade someone important between the time I write this, and this lands in your inbox, back off. This is one of the odds of betting on baseball around the trade deadline, especially when the game involves a team that is selling off its major league roster like the Red Sox. Hell, it’s not out of the question that someone in the Red Sox clubhouse today walks the other side of Minute Maid.

However, if things stand as they are, the Red Sox are an excellent value. Recency bias causes everyone to forget that Boston was 20-6 in June. So, if you look at them over a two-month period, they’ve gone 28-25 since the start of June, yet here they’re being priced like an 8-19 team.

Which isn’t to say they’re going to bounce back tonight. There is no guarantee. The offense has been a bit of a power outage lately and will face a tough pitcher tonight in Luis Garcia. Still, Boston will send Nathan Evaldi to the mound, and he’s a plus-value pitcher this season. He rarely walks hitters and makes a lot of ground ball contact. As things stand, I’ll take the Red Sox anywhere as low as +145.

Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: The SportsLine experts and I are all over the place on the outcome of this game, but the projection model leans strongly toward tomorrow..


💰 The Pix

⚾ MLB

Diamondbacks at Guardians, 7:10 p.m TV: MLB.TV

Latest problems:

More than 9

Picks: Over 9 (-105) — Two starting pitchers who don’t miss bats and weather conditions that should result in plenty of stuff for fly balls? We have a strong mix of factors that lead me to believe that there is not enough total in Cleveland.

The Guardians are just one game out of first in the AL Central. Tonight’s starter, Cal Quantrill, is one reason for that surprise, as he’s posted a 3.97 ERA in 111 innings — but it’s not the kind of performance that seems sustainable.

Quantrill has a terrible strikeout rate of 15.1%, and while I wouldn’t say he has a horseshoe where you wouldn’t want him, the guy has benefited from some luck. Arizona is sending Zach Davis to the bump tonight, and he has a lot in common with Quantrill in that the results and performance have worked in his favor more than they should have. There is a chance that rain will come and wash it away, but if that doesn’t happen, we should see runs on the board.

Key trends: Over is 9-3-1 in Cleveland’s last 13 games.

Royals at White Sox, 8:10 p.m TV: MLB.TV

Latest problems:

More than 9

Picks: Over 9 (-120) — We got a similar situation tonight in Cleveland in Chicago. White Sox starter Michael Kopich is considered a flamethrower who routinely misses bats, but his strikeout rate this season is below the league average of 21.4%. His walk rate of 12.3% is well above that, yet he posted a 3.16 ERA as hitters consistently struggled to square him.

Or they did for a while. Kopich had a 1.92 ERA through his first 11 starts this season, but things have changed dramatically since mid-June. He struck out 20 over seven starts for a 4.91 ERA in his last 36.2 innings. He managed just 27 strikeouts to 21 walks in that span.

Kopich will face the Royals offense he faced earlier this year when he allowed two runs and walked four in five innings, but as long as his form improves. If not, any contact may be impaired as the ball should be carried. . As for the Royals, Brad Keller starts, and he doesn’t let go of the bat and loses a lot of control. Sox hitters have seen plenty of that, too, so he won’t be fooling anyone. A high-scoring affair is highly likely on the south side of Chicago tonight.

Key trends: Over is 4-1-1 in Chicago’s last six home games.

🔒 Sportsline Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein went 55-36 in his last 91 MLB picks and found a great game on the spread between the Mets and Nationals tonight..