Bad news for rice farmers in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal, with the lowest rainfall recorded in July in 122 years. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall in the region is likely to be below normal during the next two months.
“As far as the IMD forecast is concerned, many parts of the West Coast and some parts of East Central, East and North East India are likely to receive below normal rainfall. East UP, Jharkhand, and West Bengal in August. I may still get near-normal rains, but the forecast does not look very encouraging for Bihar, which is likely to be the most affected,” said IMD Director General of Meteorology M Mohapatra.
While monsoon rains across the country have so far been 8 percent above normal, eastern and northeastern India are facing a dry monsoon season with a deficit of up to 16 percent so far. Rainfall in July was notably below normal by about 44%, the lowest in 122 years. The last time this region experienced such bad rains was in July 1903.
Prolonged drought has pushed the region into a drought-like situation that could seriously impact paddy farmers. As of July 28, Bihar had received only 278 mm of rain against the normal 474 mm, a staggering 41 percent shortfall. In Jharkhand, the shortfall is close to 50 percent, with ten districts experiencing widespread low rainfall.
According to meteorologists, the sub-par monsoon season is in line with the long-term trends, which indicate a reduced rainfall scenario for eastern and northeastern states. “We have analyzed the data and found that the eastern states are getting less rainfall. There is a negative trend, especially for certain pockets. It is not huge, but it is significant,” Moha said. Patra said.
Second heaviest rainfall in July for entire country
On the other hand, overall rainfall across the country was the second highest since 2005 after 1998, with monsoon rainfall on July 31 being 8% above normal. Normal rains in next two months The IMD said rains are likely to be good in most parts of south-east India, north-west and west-central India in August.
“We usually observe three low pressure systems in July and about 14 days when these low pressure systems are active. However, this time, we saw as many as four low pressure systems, out of which The last two lasted longer. In total there were 21 low pressure system days in the entire month, which explains the above normal rains,” Mohapatra said.
Normal rain for India
Barring East Central and Eastern states, the entire country is likely to receive normal rainfall – 94-106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). According to the IMD, the prevailing La Niña conditions (sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean) expected to last till the end of the year, will favor good rains.
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